“Elderly financing explosion” is a case without hindering the overall healthy and orderly trading
Recently, the case of “a 69-year-old man who bought stocks with leverage and lost 10 million yuan” has aroused market concern. Some people worry that the cases of financing explosion may increase and cause the risk of “stampede” in the market.The author believes that the case and the overall situation should be treated differently, should not be far-fetched.As far as the case mentioned above is concerned, it is only a civil dispute, and the case dates back to 2017. The market environment at that time cannot be simply compared with today.At present, the balance of margin lending and short selling in Shanghai and Shenzhen has reached 1.78 trillion yuan. From the perspective of the whole market, the trading of margin lending and short selling in Shanghai and Shenzhen is healthy and orderly, and there is no systemic risk.As of January 24, the number of two financial target stocks has exceeded 2200.As of January 21, the proportion of the financing balance of more than 500 million yuan accounted for 35.70%, among which the proportion of the financing balance between 500 million yuan and 1 billion yuan accounted for 18%.At the same time, the rapid growth of short selling has become an important way to hedge risks and improve the effectiveness of trading strategies.As of January 21, the balance of short selling in Shanghai and Shenzhen reached 105.376 billion yuan, an increase of more than 14 times compared with 2018.Despite the continuous expansion of the two financing scale, the overall willingness of investors to leverage has not significantly increased.Up to now, trading volume between the two finance companies accounts for 7.09% of a-share turnover, which is more stable than 8.65% in 2018, 9.17% in 2019, 9.89% in 2020 and 8.88% in 2021.The regulatory authorities attach great importance to the compliance and risk management of Liangrong business and severely attack the illegal activities in the market.Last year, brokerages received 92 “fines” from the CSRC, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, and the Securities Industry Association, which repeatedly pointed to violations of liangrong’s business.The optimization of the trading mechanism and the expansion of the target range can not only improve the marketization degree of the two financial transactions, but also guide investors to invest rationally and guide capital to enter the market in a standardized way. Meanwhile, it can also promote the more balanced distribution of financing capital to a certain extent.In order to further improve the risk control measures and credit impairment management of securities companies, and effectively prevent business risks, last December, securities lending and margin business Committee of China Securities Association held a symposium, emphasizing prudent credit granting, good access to financing, dynamic control in doing good things, and good use of counter-cyclical measures.At present, most securities companies have established a comprehensive risk monitoring system, introducing macro adjustment factors when determining risk limits. When the market continues to be active and the balance of margin trading and short selling rises rapidly, risk control indicators are adjusted moderately and tightly to prevent the rapid accumulation of risks.When the market is at a low valuation, credit account holdings are dispersed and the willingness to leverage trading is low, moderate risk control measures should be restored to maintain the continuous and stable development of the business.At present, the valuation of the A share market is relatively low, and the space for significant decline is limited.Affected by the continuous contraction of the credit environment, as of January 24, 2022, the dynamic price-earnings ratio of all A shares is 18.76 times, which has fallen significantly from 22.86 times in 2020.Under the escort of stable growth portfolio policies, market expectations tend to be stable.Although the Spring Festival holiday may restrain the market performance, but there are signs of capital recovery: as of January 24, northbound capital has shown a trend of net buying for 7 consecutive trading days, the total net buying for the year is 50.241 billion yuan.In the vast capital market, there are long slope thick snow and desert dust. For investors, it is necessary to constantly improve the awareness and ability of risk prevention, evaluate their risk tolerance ability on the premise of fully understanding the trading rules, and prudently make use of the credit amplification function of margin trading.