Talk about the logic behind big infrastructure being so tough
Today, the two cities all day transaction 807.6 billion, foreign net purchase 4.838 billion, the market is still hovering at this amount, it is not very reassuring.The main line of infrastructure construction is still the strongest, the replacement of the old and new infrastructure, the old infrastructure HZ garden for four consecutive days of violence pulled up, after the second doubling stock or the old infrastructure, Zhejiang Construction in full change of hands blocked the daily limit, in addition to the two giants, the old infrastructure plate still has dozens of daily limit stocks.Last night’s news stimulated the data center branch of the new infrastructure plate. You did not see that, strictly speaking, the data center is still the new infrastructure branch of the big infrastructure!See if the heat will spread to the digital currency next week. At present, look at the digital currency or strong rhythm trend, looking forward to stepping back to repair the rebound to a new high!With lithium and medicine strong rhythm, there is no new theme out of the new hot spot to replace, it is estimated that it will not be so easy to ebb!Today I’m going to talk about the logic of infrastructure madness, what it includes, and where the opportunities lie.First, the logic behind the infrastructure boom.Policy is one of the first fundamentals of A shares!In recent years, due to the epidemic and china-us trade frictions, China’s economy has come under pressure. Investment, consumption and export are known as the “three carriages” driving GDP growth.When the economy is in a downturn, the government often tries to stabilize it by increasing infrastructure investment.Therefore, infrastructure investment is also known as a counter-cyclical stabilizer.(2008, 2012, 2016, 2018,2020).Now China’s GDD recovery in consumption, export downward but resilient, real estate fall but still slightly positive growth assumptions, to achieve the aim of GDP5.5%2022 growth, big probability needed infrastructure investment growth around 8% (market neutral expect 5-7%), convert, generalized fiscal into infrastructure funds total about 4.9 trillion!An increase of 21.1% over 2021!The logic behind the massive infrastructure boom is still very hard.What are the branches of the infrastructure concept?When the economy is under pressure, why do they give priority to large-scale infrastructure investment to stabilize the economy?The reason is that the capital chain radiation surface of large infrastructure is very wide, and the effect on the economy is affecting the whole body., for example, real estate (maybe someone real estate separately, because now ordered housing not stir, but can’t deny the real estate and infrastructure of the overlap degree is very high), once the pull the real estate, upstream of the building materials, construction machinery, steel, chemical products and downstream terminal consumer services will be jointly and severally, multiplier effect is very large.Therefore, infrastructure is not only infrastructure, even the surrounding infrastructure will be associated with the concept of infrastructure, and become a branch of large infrastructure.What are the branches of infrastructure?Big infrastructure is divided into two major branches: new infrastructure and old infrastructure. Old infrastructure includes high-speed rail, engineering design, consumer building materials, water conservancy, high speed, Bridges, environmental protection and so on.The new infrastructure includes five sectors: data center, high-speed rail interchange, 5G base station, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet.Infrastructure has risen so much, where are the opportunities?Concept speculation is generally divided into three stages, the policy just came out when the concept of speculation, policy landing speculation landing, the company’s performance after cashing speculation performance.Similarly, there are three opportunities for us to follow the trend and eat meat. At present, the speculation of big infrastructure is in the concept stage, which is characterized by blind speculation and dominated by hot capital, so the current stage mainly depends on which stock the capital flows into.The second stage is landing, after the concept is clear, which specific branches can really be supported by the policy, capital to make a choice, and a wave of speculation.The third stage is the performance of cash, plate capital policy support, performance growth, and then a wave of speculation, but this time is a story later.At present stage, you can pay attention to the hype of the second stage of the implementation of the hype direction.According to the “14th Five-year Plan”, the transportation, energy and water conservancy of the old infrastructure are the focus of the old infrastructure, so we can focus on the general direction of the branches such as transportation and water conservancy, clean energy, coal power transformation and underground pipe network transformation.During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the average annual growth rate of new infrastructure is about 20%, and the average annual volume is about 1.6 trillion yuan, about 10% of the investment in infrastructure. Among them, data centers, high-speed rail interchange and 5G account for a high proportion, and charging piles grow fastest, which can focus on data centers and rail transit.In 2022, data center and urban rail transit construction are likely to be the major incremental growth, while other items such as 5G and charging piles will have a low growth rate or a small scale, which may only drive the overall investment.Clear the main line of capital, stepping on the mainstream concept is equivalent to master the initiative, “from buy to sell seven lessons” can be very systematic take you into the door, tell you some of the main harvest methods and improve your understanding of the stock.In fact, as long as there is correct guidance, it is easy to understand the short – term hot spot.